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Monday, January 19, 2004
Who will it be? [Note: This is a very stream of consciousness kind of post. Read with caution and patience...] Going into the caucus, John Kerry seemed to be leading in the polls. This excites Lauren and I because Kerry is her first choice and one of two that I'm considering to vote for (Clark being the other who is not competing in Iowa at all)... Of the four hosts on Crossfire, three had predicted that Kerry would win, and only Tucker Carlson predicted a Dean victory. Many folks are predicting that if Dick Gephardt loses, he'll be withdrawing from the race shortly. John Edwards who hasn't been considered much more than a blip previously has surged in the most recent polls, making it a statistical tie between four candidates. Anything can happen tonight... and it will shape the rest of the election season. Wolf Blitzer was describing how the process worked. It's definitely not like normal voting. You check in at a caucus site and move into groups based on which candidate you support. OR you can stand in a group of "uncommitted" voters. Groups that reach a 15% threshhold of the voters at any given caucus location are considered "viable." Voters in any groups that have less than 15% have an opportunity to move to the group of their second or even third-choice candidate. A lot of arm-twisting and vote trading occurs in order to help candidates win a larger percentage or meet the 15% thresshold. Most notably, Edwards and Kucinich have agreed to swap supporters should any of them not reach the necessary 15%. (The caucus is almost a human form of "Instant Runoff Voting" that many election reform proponents are pushing.) This is democracy in action folks! Results are coming in... its kind of fun to refresh CNN.com and watch the number of precincts reporting go up... (I'm such a political geek.) Right now, with 26% of precincts reporting, John Kerry is leading with John Edwards close behind. Dean and Gephardt are a distant third and fourth, respectively. Which brings me to my plans for the weekend. If things go as planned, Lauren and I will pile on a bus at 11:00 PM Friday night in Syracuse with about 70 other John Kerry supporters and head to New Hampshire to rally, make phone calls, and party before the state's first-in-the-nation primary. The energy and the cold is going to be intense. Just the thing to bust me out of my middle-of-the-winter doldrums... I'd better get some long underwear before the trip. Now, with nearly half of the precincts reporting... the results are staying about the same. 37% Kerry, 33% Edwards, 18% Dean, and 11% Gephardt... Oh yeah, and that Kucinich guy (the one that reminds me of a Keebler Elf) has 1%. Looks like it's going to be a good night for John Kerry. 78% reporting... and the numbers haven't budged. CNN just projected Kerry the winner and Edwards in second... Poor Howard Dean. I guess I don't need to torture you with this post anymore... | private feedback | |
Hey! I'm Shane... a proud gay progressive Democrat who has recently relocated to New York City from Ithaca, NY. As I am no longer in Ithaca, I haven't quite decided the fate of this blog. Drop me a line!
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